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Intermarket Analysis of the markets.

This article includes our Technical view on: 1)      International Gold 2)      USDINR Pair 3)      Crude 4)      Indian Equity International Gold International Gold has given a downward breakdown from the “Descending Triangle Pattern”. Descending triangle is a bearish chart pattern used in technical analysis that is created by drawing one trendline that connects a series of lower highs and a second trendline that has historically proven to be a strong level of support. It clearly shows that the demand for an asset is weakening, and when the price breaks below the lower support, it is a clear indication that downside momentum is likely to continue or become stronger. Ideally after this breakdown, Gold should have gone to 1000/1020 levels. However after the breakout there was no follow-up action on the downside. We have also seen a “Hammer” on the charts. As the name says whenever a hammer appears especially after a […]

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Category:Economy, Learn

Where the markets will go? Who cares… I know my Investments!

These days, when I meet my friends and relatives, more often than not the conversation veers predictively towards a version of “Where do I see the markets going forward over next…”. The time frame does not matter; I have come across all, from next few days to weeks to months to years. Yet invariably my answer most of the times have veered towards “I don’t know!” And this always comes as a bit of a shock but more importantly as a disappointment. However, it’s not hard to understand their shock and disappointment. Perhaps, I would have felt the same if I were to come across someone (like a Doctor) whom I see as an expert and if most of the time his responses to my queries are “I don’t know!” The disappointment they feel is probably much greater, because they have seen my peers launch in to highly sophisticated exposition […]

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Rupee Technical Report

Rupee Technical Report

Current Spot Quote: 61.50 View: Bearish (On rupee) Target: 66.50 Time-frame: By Feb 2015 Strategy: Create longs between 61-61.50 with a Stoploss of 57.8 for 66.50(Spot levels) Rational Currency Chart As can be seen from the Charts USD-INR has a Strong support placed at 60.50 levels with other crucial trendline support placed at 61/61.2 levels. On a standalone basis charts suggest USD-INR Pair would have probably bottomed and any dips could be used an opportunity to buy. Inter-market Analysis Over a period of time emphasis in the Technical world has shifted from Single Market to a more inter-market approach. In an increasingly interrelated financial world, the ability to study all markets gives Technical Analysts a huge advantage. No markets move in isolation and analysis of one market should include all the others. The four major groups are stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies, of which, Dollar and commodities trend in opposite […]

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Lower Oil Prices: The Inflection Point?

As you might be observing, oil prices have fallen over the past three months. Recently Goldman Sachs has slashed its 2015 Brent oil price forecasts to $85 per barrel for March 2015. Talking about the Indian Subcontinent, the prime beneficiary to this event is the Government of India which can meet its fiscal deficit targets comfortably. Since diesel subsidies form a major portion of the government’s annual budget, reduction in oil prices will cut down expenditures. Taking advantage of lower oil prices, the Government has proactively deregulated diesel prices. Although this decision was long pending, we need to see if this deregulation continues with increase in oil prices too. Another benefit would be the decline in inflation which has been the main agenda of the NDA during the general elections. With expected cut down in fiscal expenditure pertaining to subsidies, there is a good opportunity for the Government to invest […]

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Category:Economy, Learn

Thumb rule for Investing!

Do you stay glued to the daily ups and downs of stock prices? Do you wonder what to conclude from the prices, fluctuating every now and then? Do you hope to make a windfall on the hot new stock you bought? And yet, things don’t go as you want. Trust me; this can be simply termed as human misjudgement of the underlying value. What is a stock? It’s a small piece of business. What does that mean? Simply, that you own the earnings and the cash flows that the business generates from time to time. To give you an evident analogy, the dividend on the stock is similar to rent you receive on your property and capital gain from the stock is similar to gains you earn after selling the property. Does the rent or property price change every day? It changes only over a period of time, may be […]

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