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Lower Oil Prices: The Inflection Point?

As you might be observing, oil prices have fallen over the past three months. Recently Goldman Sachs has slashed its 2015 Brent oil price forecasts to $85 per barrel for March 2015. Talking about the Indian Subcontinent, the prime beneficiary to this event is the Government of India which can meet its fiscal deficit targets comfortably. Since diesel subsidies form a major portion of the government’s annual budget, reduction in oil prices will cut down expenditures. Taking advantage of lower oil prices, the Government has proactively deregulated diesel prices. Although this decision was long pending, we need to see if this deregulation continues with increase in oil prices too. Another benefit would be the decline in inflation which has been the main agenda of the NDA during the general elections. With expected cut down in fiscal expenditure pertaining to subsidies, there is a good opportunity for the Government to invest […]

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Category:Economy, Learn

Thumb rule for Investing!

Do you stay glued to the daily ups and downs of stock prices? Do you wonder what to conclude from the prices, fluctuating every now and then? Do you hope to make a windfall on the hot new stock you bought? And yet, things don’t go as you want. Trust me; this can be simply termed as human misjudgement of the underlying value. What is a stock? It’s a small piece of business. What does that mean? Simply, that you own the earnings and the cash flows that the business generates from time to time. To give you an evident analogy, the dividend on the stock is similar to rent you receive on your property and capital gain from the stock is similar to gains you earn after selling the property. Does the rent or property price change every day? It changes only over a period of time, may be […]

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Nifty above 7900, should you still be buying? Nifty@MRP gives you the answer…

Nifty above 7900, should you still be buying? Nifty@MRP gives you the answer…

What is Nifty@MRP? As investors, we constantly track the Nifty movements. To make investing more profitable and not a game of mere chance, we need a solution, a solution which could help us identify whether the market is grossly depressed or irrationally exuberant. This is exactly what Nifty @ MRP is for! Considering that the Nifty stocks are the top traded stocks of the country, we expect them to be traded at their MRPs (fair value). But this may not always be true. Thus, Nifty @ MRP gives an indication of whether the Nifty is fairly valued or whether irrationality is driving the markets. What is the latest value of Nifty@MRP? A lot of things have changed in the past six months, since we last sent out our Nifty@MRP report. Modi-led BJP won the elections with a majority; current account deficit has been brought under control; huge FII funds inflow, […]

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An Athletic approach to stock market investing

Recently, while going through my set of business dailies, I found many experts commenting about the recent bull-run in the Indian equity markets. And I found a striking similarity between a bull-run and a Marathon. Both, Marathon and Bull-run can be broken down into three phases. I have jotted down a few points that I feel are analogous, read on:- (Bull run in italics) Marathon, Initial 14 kms: You have to be strong and confident to take up this challenge. You have to trust your ability and prepare mentally to finish the task at hand. Start slow, running slow is the key to enjoy and complete the marathon. Remember, the hare and the tortoise story? Don’t worry about the people who have passed you starting way too fast. These people will get eliminated anyways due to early fatigue. Don’t get obsessed with winning or thinking about your reputation. Bull-run Phase […]

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Category:Learn
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Infrastructure- Roads: Slippery road for Construction companies

Road Construction forms the most crucial part of the economy. As per the National Highways Authority of India, about 65% of freight and 80% passenger traffic is carried by the roads. The National Highways carry about 40% of total road traffic, though only about 2% of the road network is covered by these roads. Average growth of the number of vehicles has been around 10.16% per annum over recent years. At 0.66 km of highway per square kilometre of land the density of India’s highway network is higher than that of the United States (0.65) and far higher than that of China’s (0.16) or Brazil’s (0.20), however, the highways in India are narrow and congested with poor quality surface. All national highways are metalled, but very few are constructed of concrete, the most notable being the Mumbai-Pune Expressway and Yamuna Expressway. The major national highways include, the Golden Quadrilateral and North-South […]

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