Where the markets will go? Who cares… I know my Investments!

These days, when I meet my friends and relatives, more often than not the conversation veers predictively towards a version of “Where do I see the markets going forward over next…”. The time frame does not matter; I have come across all, from next few days to weeks to months to years. Yet invariably my answer most of the times have veered towards “I don’t know!” And this always comes as a bit of a shock but more importantly as a disappointment. However, it’s not hard to understand their shock and disappointment. Perhaps, I would have felt the same if I were to come across someone (like a Doctor) whom I see as an expert and if most of the time his responses to my queries are “I don’t know!” The disappointment they feel is probably much greater, because they have seen my peers launch in to highly sophisticated exposition […]

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Rupee Technical Report

Rupee Technical Report

Current Spot Quote: 61.50 View: Bearish (On rupee) Target: 66.50 Time-frame: By Feb 2015 Strategy: Create longs between 61-61.50 with a Stoploss of 57.8 for 66.50(Spot levels) Rational Currency Chart As can be seen from the Charts USD-INR has a Strong support placed at 60.50 levels with other crucial trendline support placed at 61/61.2 levels. On a standalone basis charts suggest USD-INR Pair would have probably bottomed and any dips could be used an opportunity to buy. Inter-market Analysis Over a period of time emphasis in the Technical world has shifted from Single Market to a more inter-market approach. In an increasingly interrelated financial world, the ability to study all markets gives Technical Analysts a huge advantage. No markets move in isolation and analysis of one market should include all the others. The four major groups are stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies, of which, Dollar and commodities trend in opposite […]

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Table1

Lower Oil Prices: The Inflection Point?

As you might be observing, oil prices have fallen over the past three months. Recently Goldman Sachs has slashed its 2015 Brent oil price forecasts to $85 per barrel for March 2015. Talking about the Indian Subcontinent, the prime beneficiary to this event is the Government of India which can meet its fiscal deficit targets comfortably. Since diesel subsidies form a major portion of the government’s annual budget, reduction in oil prices will cut down expenditures. Taking advantage of lower oil prices, the Government has proactively deregulated diesel prices. Although this decision was long pending, we need to see if this deregulation continues with increase in oil prices too. Another benefit would be the decline in inflation which has been the main agenda of the NDA during the general elections. With expected cut down in fiscal expenditure pertaining to subsidies, there is a good opportunity for the Government to invest […]

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Category:Economy, Learn

Thumb rule for Investing!

Do you stay glued to the daily ups and downs of stock prices? Do you wonder what to conclude from the prices, fluctuating every now and then? Do you hope to make a windfall on the hot new stock you bought? And yet, things don’t go as you want. Trust me; this can be simply termed as human misjudgement of the underlying value. What is a stock? It’s a small piece of business. What does that mean? Simply, that you own the earnings and the cash flows that the business generates from time to time. To give you an evident analogy, the dividend on the stock is similar to rent you receive on your property and capital gain from the stock is similar to gains you earn after selling the property. Does the rent or property price change every day? It changes only over a period of time, may be […]

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Nifty above 7900, should you still be buying? Nifty@MRP gives you the answer…

Nifty above 7900, should you still be buying? Nifty@MRP gives you the answer…

What is Nifty@MRP? As investors, we constantly track the Nifty movements. To make investing more profitable and not a game of mere chance, we need a solution, a solution which could help us identify whether the market is grossly depressed or irrationally exuberant. This is exactly what Nifty @ MRP is for! Considering that the Nifty stocks are the top traded stocks of the country, we expect them to be traded at their MRPs (fair value). But this may not always be true. Thus, Nifty @ MRP gives an indication of whether the Nifty is fairly valued or whether irrationality is driving the markets. What is the latest value of Nifty@MRP? A lot of things have changed in the past six months, since we last sent out our Nifty@MRP report. Modi-led BJP won the elections with a majority; current account deficit has been brought under control; huge FII funds inflow, […]

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