Archive by Author Aliya Sayyed-Team MoneyWorks4me
Nifty@MRP Dec 2016-1

Nifty@MRP Suggest Markets Are Overvalued, What Should Investors Do?

What is Nifty@MRP? As investors, we constantly track the Nifty movements. To make investing more profitable and not a game of mere chance, we need a solution, a solution which could help us identify whether the market is grossly depressed or irrationally exuberant. This is exactly what Nifty @ MRP is for! What is the latest value of Nifty@MRP? For Dec’16, considering the free float market capitalization at the MRP of individual stocks and the share price data as of 28 February, 2017, the Nifty@MRP is at 8693. On 28h February, NSE Nifty index closed at 8879.6, which is ~2% or 187 points above the Nifty@MRP. It indicates that the index is slightly overvalued. As of 7 March, 2017, closing index value of 8946.9, Nifty is ~3% overvalued. Future Outlook Nifty has gained almost 2.3% since we last released our last Nifty@MRP on August 31, 2016. However, with the December […]

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Sensex chart

Nifty 4% above Nifty@MRP, past trends suggest a probable correction

What is Nifty@MRP? As investors, we constantly track the Nifty movements. To make investing more profitable and not a game of mere chance, we need a solution, a solution which could help us identify whether the market is grossly depressed or irrationally exuberant. This is exactly what Nifty @ MRP is for! What is the latest value of Nifty@MRP? The Nifty has rallied close to 400 points since the start of the year and managed to breach the psychological 9000 level post budget. This, despite the continuing earnings downgrade in the Dec 14 quarter. What has fuelled this rally? Sentiments have been positive for a while now on expectations of an economic recovery, falling interest rates and hopes of an improving earnings outlook. All this in turn took the FII inflow to the highest level in any year at net $43.5 billion in FY15. Investment in debt was mainly due […]

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Nifty above 7900, should you still be buying? Nifty@MRP gives you the answer…

Nifty above 7900, should you still be buying? Nifty@MRP gives you the answer…

What is Nifty@MRP? As investors, we constantly track the Nifty movements. To make investing more profitable and not a game of mere chance, we need a solution, a solution which could help us identify whether the market is grossly depressed or irrationally exuberant. This is exactly what Nifty @ MRP is for! Considering that the Nifty stocks are the top traded stocks of the country, we expect them to be traded at their MRPs (fair value). But this may not always be true. Thus, Nifty @ MRP gives an indication of whether the Nifty is fairly valued or whether irrationality is driving the markets. What is the latest value of Nifty@MRP? A lot of things have changed in the past six months, since we last sent out our Nifty@MRP report. Modi-led BJP won the elections with a majority; current account deficit has been brought under control; huge FII funds inflow, […]

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Would you like to be the ‘lucky idiot’ or the ‘skillful investor’?

‘You make your own luck’ – The popularity of this statement comes from the basic human urge to deny any existence of luck and thus have a feeling of ultimate control over one’s future. Yet I more than agree with Howard Marks, when he says in his recent memo that ‘even the hardest workers and the best decision makers among us will fail to succeed consistently without luck’ Randomness (or luck) plays a huge part in in our lives as it does in investing. Thus, while analysing an investment that you made in the past or analysing a successful strategy that worked in the past, it is essential to think about the role luck played in the end results. Whether the performance resulted from skill or simply being lucky? Have you ever invested without analysing the stock’s fundamentals and still ended up making lots of money; and felt good about […]

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Patient Opportunism…. Overcoming your action bias

‘Patience is a virtue’, more so in the world of investing! Patiently waiting for bargains to come your way, is often the best strategy an investor can follow. We are constantly dealing with different market conditions. It is important for us to realize the investment environment we are currently in and act accordingly. There may be times when greed and fear are balanced. At such times, everything will be fairly priced. And thus markets may not present great buying opportunities at bargain prices or selling at irrationally high prices. And at such times, doing nothing at all is the best option we have. However, this is easier said than done. Let me give you an oft mentioned example. In soccer penalty kicks, goalkeepers choose their action before they can clearly observe the kick direction. (The ball takes 0.2 seconds to reach the goal after it is kicked, giving the keeper […]

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