Archive by Author Chaitanya Kekre - Team MoneyWorks4me

Where the markets will go? Who cares… I know my Investments!

These days, when I meet my friends and relatives, more often than not the conversation veers predictively towards a version of “Where do I see the markets going forward over next…”. The time frame does not matter; I have come across all, from next few days to weeks to months to years. Yet invariably my answer most of the times have veered towards “I don’t know!” And this always comes as a bit of a shock but more importantly as a disappointment. However, it’s not hard to understand their shock and disappointment. Perhaps, I would have felt the same if I were to come across someone (like a Doctor) whom I see as an expert and if most of the time his responses to my queries are “I don’t know!” The disappointment they feel is probably much greater, because they have seen my peers launch in to highly sophisticated exposition […]

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How would economy evolve and Stock Markets react if a Third Front/Federal Front government is formed?

How would economy evolve and Stock Markets react if a Third Front/Federal Front government is formed?

Throughout the month of March we have been looking at how political outcomes post 2014 General Election. Till now we have seen three possible scenarios. Today we will look at a fourth possible scenario -What if a Third Front/Federal government forms a coalition government after the general election?

And finally we will try tying all these together by building market expectation for the near future.

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Category:Economy
How will the economy evolve and stock markets react if Congress forms a coalition government?

How will the economy evolve and stock markets react if Congress forms a coalition government?

Over the last few weeks we have been trying to look at probable economic outcomes and stock market scenarios given different possible political outcomes after the 2014 General Election. An Investor desiring safety needs to run such thought exercises if he is investing in India. For a simple reason that the economic policy understanding that existed among the political parties of various hues in between 1991-2004 (even if it was in fits and starts) has somehow broken down over the last few years. As such political outcomes have a very strong impact on the economic scenarios that can play out. This time we would like to see what if contrary to most opinion polls Congress still ends up showing a strong performance even if say, it’s worse than 2009 but still sufficient to form the government in one form or the other. In spite of very strong headwinds against Congress […]

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How will the economy evolve and stock markets react if BJP forms a weak coalition government?

How will the economy evolve and stock markets react if BJP forms a weak coalition government?

Over the next few months the most talked about event dominating the Indian investors mind would be the 2014 General Elections. One just needs to look at the relative performance of the Sensex 30 compared to its peers Bovespa (Brazil Index) and Shanghai Composite Index (China Index) to gauge the strength displayed by the Indian indices. While most Emerging market indices have been weak over last 6 months, Sensex has been stable without any clearly visible decisive trend. We believe that the major reason for this is because most market participants are keeping their fingers crossed with respect to the outcome of General Election. In continuation of our effort to fill the gap in the analysis presented to the investors as a result of political impact, this week to look at one more scenarios that has an equally strong probability, but is underappreciated by the markets as of today. Before […]

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How will economy evolve if BJP coalition wins in 2014 General Election?

Today the most talked about topic is ‘2014 General Election’. If one were to switch on any news channel today, we can be certain of one thing, there are showing either Election debates or what was said by any of the political personality in the course of the day against other political party. In short, there is saturated coverage on election and politics. However one thing that is not covered by the most of the commentators is how the outcome of this election is likely to impact the mood of the nation. In the first of these series, we would try and fill up this gap at least as far as the economy and stock markets go. This week, we are starting by asking ourselves “What if a Centre-Right-BJP led coalition was to win this general election?” Before we start contemplating the possible effect of BJP forming a government at […]

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