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Casinos are better than today’s Stock Market!!

Corporate India has had one of the terrible quarters in terms of growth. Rather, last few quarters have consistently came in below expectations. Investors have been waiting for some meat but alas they have got a raw deal! They have bet money at very high valuations that even God would find difficult to justify. In return, did they get any profits from the investee business? We are seeing large amount of funds flowing into the mutual funds on hopes. An illusion that the economy is on the cusp of turnaround has misled many. We do not expect the economy to change course abruptly. We see the process to happen more gradually than what the market expects. Don’t you think the longer it takes, lower will be the yield from the investment made today? Given the stress in the economy, are we asking for enough risk premium? As opposed to what the market feels, the economy […]

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Investors waiting at the finishing line!

In anticipation of major policy shift at the centre, investors have poured huge amount of capital in equity markets. They were patiently waiting at the bay till late December 2013 to see if there was a remote chance of improvement in business activities across the country. Elections results of Rajasthan, MP & Chhattisgarh gave investors a hope that the voters are likely to challenge the status quo and choose Modi’s vision of inclusive growth and development agenda at the central elections. The market rally began well before Modi’s rigorous national election campaign. Investors expected that the Modi government will do away with the policy gridlocks of the previous complacent government and dark clouds hovering over the companies would clear. However, growth agendas take time to materialize due to high public investments required at the initial stages. We can experience a similar situation now. Extremely high optimism surrounds the Arun Jaitley […]

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Fake Multibaggers!

“We can pick multibaggers. Subscribe to our services and get MULTIBAGGERS” – Tom, Dick & Harry Looking at the current scenario, there seems to be a slot machine game being played on the bourses. Any Tom, Dick or Harry in some corner of the country thinks he is skilled enough to spot multibaggers! Since all the stocks are moving up, there are high chances that all the recommendations will work. This means that ‘Luck’ is predominant in stock picking. Ones who are getting thrilled are forgetting what if the tide goes out? What if they held on to their investment and market went belly up? Do they have strong conviction to hold on to those stocks for long term or may be till next bull market? Seems unlikely! “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” –Warren Buffett People usually overestimate their stock picking ability […]

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Where the markets will go? Who cares… I know my Investments!

These days, when I meet my friends and relatives, more often than not the conversation veers predictively towards a version of “Where do I see the markets going forward over next…”. The time frame does not matter; I have come across all, from next few days to weeks to months to years. Yet invariably my answer most of the times have veered towards “I don’t know!” And this always comes as a bit of a shock but more importantly as a disappointment. However, it’s not hard to understand their shock and disappointment. Perhaps, I would have felt the same if I were to come across someone (like a Doctor) whom I see as an expert and if most of the time his responses to my queries are “I don’t know!” The disappointment they feel is probably much greater, because they have seen my peers launch in to highly sophisticated exposition […]

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Rupee Technical Report

Rupee Technical Report

Current Spot Quote: 61.50 View: Bearish (On rupee) Target: 66.50 Time-frame: By Feb 2015 Strategy: Create longs between 61-61.50 with a Stoploss of 57.8 for 66.50(Spot levels) Rational Currency Chart As can be seen from the Charts USD-INR has a Strong support placed at 60.50 levels with other crucial trendline support placed at 61/61.2 levels. On a standalone basis charts suggest USD-INR Pair would have probably bottomed and any dips could be used an opportunity to buy. Inter-market Analysis Over a period of time emphasis in the Technical world has shifted from Single Market to a more inter-market approach. In an increasingly interrelated financial world, the ability to study all markets gives Technical Analysts a huge advantage. No markets move in isolation and analysis of one market should include all the others. The four major groups are stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies, of which, Dollar and commodities trend in opposite […]

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