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Rupee Technical Report

Rupee Technical Report

Current Spot Quote: 61.50 View: Bearish (On rupee) Target: 66.50 Time-frame: By Feb 2015 Strategy: Create longs between 61-61.50 with a Stoploss of 57.8 for 66.50(Spot levels) Rational Currency Chart As can be seen from the Charts USD-INR has a Strong support placed at 60.50 levels with other crucial trendline support placed at 61/61.2 levels. On a standalone basis charts suggest USD-INR Pair would have probably bottomed and any dips could be used an opportunity to buy. Inter-market Analysis Over a period of time emphasis in the Technical world has shifted from Single Market to a more inter-market approach. In an increasingly interrelated financial world, the ability to study all markets gives Technical Analysts a huge advantage. No markets move in isolation and analysis of one market should include all the others. The four major groups are stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies, of which, Dollar and commodities trend in opposite […]

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Thumb rule for Investing!

Do you stay glued to the daily ups and downs of stock prices? Do you wonder what to conclude from the prices, fluctuating every now and then? Do you hope to make a windfall on the hot new stock you bought? And yet, things don’t go as you want. Trust me; this can be simply termed as human misjudgement of the underlying value. What is a stock? It’s a small piece of business. What does that mean? Simply, that you own the earnings and the cash flows that the business generates from time to time. To give you an evident analogy, the dividend on the stock is similar to rent you receive on your property and capital gain from the stock is similar to gains you earn after selling the property. Does the rent or property price change every day? It changes only over a period of time, may be […]

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Would you like to be the ‘lucky idiot’ or the ‘skillful investor’?

‘You make your own luck’ – The popularity of this statement comes from the basic human urge to deny any existence of luck and thus have a feeling of ultimate control over one’s future. Yet I more than agree with Howard Marks, when he says in his recent memo that ‘even the hardest workers and the best decision makers among us will fail to succeed consistently without luck’ Randomness (or luck) plays a huge part in in our lives as it does in investing. Thus, while analysing an investment that you made in the past or analysing a successful strategy that worked in the past, it is essential to think about the role luck played in the end results. Whether the performance resulted from skill or simply being lucky? Have you ever invested without analysing the stock’s fundamentals and still ended up making lots of money; and felt good about […]

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Patient Opportunism…. Overcoming your action bias

‘Patience is a virtue’, more so in the world of investing! Patiently waiting for bargains to come your way, is often the best strategy an investor can follow. We are constantly dealing with different market conditions. It is important for us to realize the investment environment we are currently in and act accordingly. There may be times when greed and fear are balanced. At such times, everything will be fairly priced. And thus markets may not present great buying opportunities at bargain prices or selling at irrationally high prices. And at such times, doing nothing at all is the best option we have. However, this is easier said than done. Let me give you an oft mentioned example. In soccer penalty kicks, goalkeepers choose their action before they can clearly observe the kick direction. (The ball takes 0.2 seconds to reach the goal after it is kicked, giving the keeper […]

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Nifty at 7508! What should you do now? A Technical view

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