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Moody’s Rating upgrade: Positive for Long term

Moody’s upgraded India’s sovereign rating to Baa2 from Baa3 with Stable Outlook. What do ratings mean? Credit Rating reflects financial strength of a country when it raises money from the debt markets. Ratings vary from Aaa to D. ‘AAA’ rated asset/Sovereign is considered the safest. Safest assets/sovereign can raise loan at the cheapest rate. All countries are rated in relation to each other. Any rating equal to or above Baa3 (S&P BBB-) is considered as “investment grade”. Ratings below that are called “Junk” or Non-investment worthy. How does ratings upgrade help us? India was rated Baa3 (S&P BBB-) which was just one notch above Junk grade. This was due to poor fiscal policy, low tax base, populist budgets, etc. This ratings upgrade is a big positive. India is still a developing country. It requires large capital to build infrastructure and generate employment. Upgrade in rating can attract more investors to […]

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Category:Economy, News
How will the economy evolve and stock markets react if Congress forms a coalition government?

How will the economy evolve and stock markets react if Congress forms a coalition government?

Over the last few weeks we have been trying to look at probable economic outcomes and stock market scenarios given different possible political outcomes after the 2014 General Election. An Investor desiring safety needs to run such thought exercises if he is investing in India. For a simple reason that the economic policy understanding that existed among the political parties of various hues in between 1991-2004 (even if it was in fits and starts) has somehow broken down over the last few years. As such political outcomes have a very strong impact on the economic scenarios that can play out. This time we would like to see what if contrary to most opinion polls Congress still ends up showing a strong performance even if say, it’s worse than 2009 but still sufficient to form the government in one form or the other. In spite of very strong headwinds against Congress […]

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How will the economy evolve and stock markets react if BJP forms a weak coalition government?

How will the economy evolve and stock markets react if BJP forms a weak coalition government?

Over the next few months the most talked about event dominating the Indian investors mind would be the 2014 General Elections. One just needs to look at the relative performance of the Sensex 30 compared to its peers Bovespa (Brazil Index) and Shanghai Composite Index (China Index) to gauge the strength displayed by the Indian indices. While most Emerging market indices have been weak over last 6 months, Sensex has been stable without any clearly visible decisive trend. We believe that the major reason for this is because most market participants are keeping their fingers crossed with respect to the outcome of General Election. In continuation of our effort to fill the gap in the analysis presented to the investors as a result of political impact, this week to look at one more scenarios that has an equally strong probability, but is underappreciated by the markets as of today. Before […]

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How will economy evolve if BJP coalition wins in 2014 General Election?

Today the most talked about topic is ‘2014 General Election’. If one were to switch on any news channel today, we can be certain of one thing, there are showing either Election debates or what was said by any of the political personality in the course of the day against other political party. In short, there is saturated coverage on election and politics. However one thing that is not covered by the most of the commentators is how the outcome of this election is likely to impact the mood of the nation. In the first of these series, we would try and fill up this gap at least as far as the economy and stock markets go. This week, we are starting by asking ourselves “What if a Centre-Right-BJP led coalition was to win this general election?” Before we start contemplating the possible effect of BJP forming a government at […]

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Quantitative Easing

Quantitative Easing winding up – How it affects the Indian markets?

June 19th, 2013 was a special day. Gold hit a three-year low, the Indian Rupee hit another all-time low against the dollar and the yield on the U.S. 10-years’ Treasury note jumped as high as 2.46%. Well, is Fed’s statement to withdraw its quantitative easing programme by mid-2014 has got anything to do the way Sensex, Nifty and other Asian indices reacted? They should be! As the news about tapering of QE came out in open, equities all across the world started falling, with the Asian indices being hammered the most.  Is this kind of market reaction justified? After all, the news wasn’t a surprise; in fact quite anticipated by the market participants. Since the announcement made in May 2013, by Bernanke, the Indian stock market has shown high volatility. It crashed 383 points on 23rd May, 2013 with the earlier announcement and has further slid 5% since then. The […]

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